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When the Supreme Court heard oral arguments in Hobby Lobby v. Burwell this past fall, many observers thought it would be a pivotal decision that would determine whether the contraception mandate for employer-provided health insurance will go into effect for employees in all 50 states, or simply for those in just three states: North Carolina, Indiana, and Oregon.

But that prediction is likely to quickly be confirmed. “There is certainly a lot of hope that this is a landmark case,” says Matthew M. Jacobson, a New York University law professor and constitutional expert who coauthored a briefing in support of Hobby Lobby on behalf of the Center for Religious Freedom, a conservative Christian nonprofit that sued the Obama administration.

Hobby Lobby is one of two cases before the Supreme Court concerning the Religious Freedom Restoration Act of 1993. The other is Hobby Lobby v. Sebelius, a lawsuit from the Christian group, Mennonite Central Committee, and two other Mennonite institutions. Each of the cases challenges whether or not the Religious Freedom Restoration Act protects, and in some cases requires insurance executives to cover, abortion, sterilization, and contraception for religious reasons.

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After the court hears oral arguments for both cases, it will determine which of those cases are likely to be the deciding ones. “I think it’s entirely possible that there is no definitive outcome, but I think it’s likely to be the first one,” Jacobson says.

Both cases are challenging the mandate in President Obama’s health care reform law for all employers to provide health insurance plans that cover birth control for employees (except for religious-affiliated employers). Although Hobby Lobby was filed in 2009, its case was filed at a time in which few were thinking about the contraception mandate as a legal battle.

As the contraception mandate has come under scrutiny over the past few years, that changed, experts say,

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